Mapping justice in the green transition
April 2025
How fair is the green transition, and how can it be made more fair in spatial, social and sectoral terms?
In February, the European Commission published a Joint Roadmap for Competitiveness and Decarbonisation (Abre numa nova janela). Among other things, the roadmap states that every person, community and business should benefit from the clean transition. Furthermore, the European Commission is committed towards an EU Intergenerational Fairness Strategy (Abre numa nova janela) to strengthen and ensure fairness across the present and future generations by creating a future that is just, fair and desired by all. This calls for a green transition that is rooted in fairness and alignment for both people and territories.
The green transition is often framed as a win-win: a cleaner planet, healthier communities and new economic opportunities. But beneath the surface of this hopeful narrative lies a geographical reality - one that risks leaving some places and societal groups behind. Not all regions have the same starting points, resources or resilience to make the transition to climate neutrality. As the EU accelerates its environmental ambitions, it is also beginning to grapple more seriously with the uneven impact these ambitions may have.
Recent efforts to address this challenge include the European Commission's plan to establish a European Fair Transition Observatory. This was outlined in the Joint Roadmap for Competitiveness and Decarbonisation published by the European Commission in February 2025. Among other things, the roadmap states that every person, community and company should benefit from the clean transition. In this context, it is mentioned that the Commission will establish a European Fair Transition Observatory, sometimes also referred to as European Clean Transition Observatory. This new initiative will track and understand how the green transition affects regions and sectors differently, helping policymakers to anticipate imbalances and target support where it is most needed.
Uneven geography: Territorial imbalances of the green transition
Europe's transition to a low-carbon economy is not only a technological and financial endeavour - it is also a spatial and social one. Some regions and social groups are already well positioned to reap the benefits, while others face disproportionate costs.
There is a serious risk that regions lagging behind will be much more negatively affected. This is because the industrial and economic restructuring associated with decarbonisation and the green transition will exacerbate existing relative backwardness and territorial polarisation.
Coal-dependent areas such as Silesia in Poland or Western Macedonia in Greece are in the front line. For decades, their local economies and identities have been shaped by carbon-intensive industries. Now they face structural upheaval. Similarly, regions heavily dependent on energy-intensive manufacturing - such as parts of the Czech Republic, Romania or Germany's Ruhr region - must adapt quickly or risk economic decline.
At the same time, many peripheral rural areas may lack the workforce skills, infrastructure or innovation capacity needed to attract new green industries. Urban centres and advanced industrial hubs, on the other hand, are better placed to reap the benefits of decarbonisation - whether through green jobs, cleaner air or increased investment.
Without careful governance, these dynamics could exacerbate existing inequalities and trigger social backlash. In this context, fairness is not only a moral imperative, but also a prerequisite for political and economic stability.
Policy responses: From the Just Transition Fund to the Clean Industrial Deal
Recognising the spatial and social asymmetries of the green transition, the EU has gradually built up a set of policy instruments aimed at mitigating the impacts and promoting a more inclusive way forward.
Central to this agenda is the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM), a cornerstone of the European Green Deal. It is designed to support economic diversification, reskilling programmes, clean energy initiatives and social infrastructure in transition-affected regions. It consists of three pillars: The Just Transition Fund (JTF), with EUR 19.2 billion (in current prices) earmarked to support the most affected regions; a dedicated InvestEU programme to leverage private investment in just transition projects; and a Public Sector Loan Facility, combining EU grants and EIB loans to support local public investment.
More recently, the idea of a Clean Industrial Deal has emerged as a broader response to the global race for green technology leadership. This approach combines industrial competitiveness, carbon reduction and social equity - recognising that economic renewal must go hand in hand with social justice.
It is within this evolving policy landscape that the European Fair Transition Observatory has been proposed. While funding instruments and planning processes are essential, they also need to be underpinned by timely, detailed and comparative evidence. The Observatory aims to fill this gap.
The European Fair Transition Observatory: Monitoring for Justice
The European Fair Transition Observatory will monitor the employment impacts of the green transition. This will hopefully combine spatial, societal and sectoral aspects.
Announced as part of the European Commission's Clean Industrial Deal in February 2025, the European Fair Transition Observatory is envisaged to be launched in early 2026. It shall provide policy makers with timely data and projections, enabling them to identify potential employment hotspots - areas where job displacement is imminent - and to take proactive measures.
A key focus will be the automotive sector, which is undergoing a transformative shift towards electrification and sustainability. The Observatory will develop and collect data to project employment trends across the European automotive value chain, at both sectoral and regional levels. By integrating this data with insights into the demographic structure of the workforce, it aims to identify areas at risk of employment dislocation and skills gaps. This targeted approach will inform forward-looking interventions, such as reskilling programmes and economic diversification strategies, to support affected workers and communities.
The European Fair Transition Observatory is complemented by the Quality Jobs Roadmap, another Clean Industrial Deal initiative. Developed in collaboration with the social partners, this roadmap aims to support Member States and industries in ensuring decent working conditions, high standards of health and safety, access to training and fair job transitions for employees and the self-employed. It underlines the EU's commitment to attracting talent and boosting the competitiveness of European industry, while safeguarding workers' rights during the transition period.
To some extent, the plans for the European Fair Transition Observatory resemble the idea of ESPON, though with a strong focus on specific economic sectors and more continuous and immediate monitoring. There could be many lessons to be learned from ESPON, as well as possible functional complementarities and potential for cooperation.
Conclusion: Transitioning together
Europe's transition to a low-carbon economy will shape its future for decades to come. But how this transition unfolds across Europe - and how its burdens and benefits are distributed - will determine whether it promotes cohesion or deepens divisions.
The European Fair Transition Observatory is a promising step towards a more evidence-based and territorially sensitive green transition. It recognises that fairness must be more than a political slogan. It must be a measurable, visible and accountable goal.
As the Observatory takes shape, much will depend on its ability to produce relevant evidence, engage with stakeholders and translate its findings into real policy adjustments. The challenge ahead is not only technical but also political: ensuring that data leads to decisions that truly support people and places at risk of being left behind.
Equity is not an automatic outcome of ambitious climate policy. It has to be built - carefully, consistently and collaboratively. And for that, we need the right tools.
by Kai Böhme
(Abre numa nova janela)
