The need for transformative change - Part 2

July 2024

We are increasingly talking about the need to move beyond piecemeal action to transformative change to meet future challenges. In a series of blog posts on transformative change, we highlight - sometimes provocatively - aspects to stimulate debate and thinking beyond the usual lines of thought. In this sense, the blog posts are not necessarily balanced and do not attempt to cover all perspectives and possible futures.

In the first blog post (Opens in a new window), we looked at understanding transformative change and why we need it. We also looked at the expected economic and industrial changes. In this blog post we talk about transformative climate change adaptation and mitigation and transformative societal values.

This series of blog posts was inspired by discussions with Franziska Sielker and Maria Toptsidou about changing framework conditions in the Danube region.

The blog posts deepen the debate about future trends. They build on the 2022/23 blog posts about trends that will shape territorial development (Opens in a new window) and the 2024 blog posts about the ESPAS report trends to 2040 (Opens in a new window).

Transformative Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly visible across Europe. This calls for increased efforts to adapt to climate change and, where possible, to mitigate it. In many respects, a multitude of small-scale local actions may no longer be sufficient. More systemic - large-scale - interventions may be needed in many respects. Firstly, this will require decisions in which costs and benefits are separated by long time lags, and in some cases even spatial lags. Second, it involves intrinsically complex coupled social-ecological systems. Third, it involves the production of global collective goods that go beyond the scope of unilateral 'single best efforts' by any one actor. The focus on transformative climate change adaptation and mitigation could be strengthened, and a few more issues could be added to the debate:

• Droughts and water scarcity. Following discussions on sea level rise, flooding, extreme weather events and instability, heat is an issue that is becoming more prominent in the public debate. This includes heat-trapping, urban heat islands, droughts and access to water. Droughts and water scarcity are no longer just an issue in southern Europe. They are becoming an issue, to varying degrees, in many parts of Europe. In the coming years, adaptation to climate change is likely to focus more on droughts and access to freshwater than it does today. This will include issues of freshwater retention, as many areas are consuming more water (e.g. for agriculture, forestry, energy production, etc.) than is newly generated in the area. This will require adaptation strategies in agriculture and other economic sectors that rely on freshwater use, as well as in personal behaviour. This also includes the water levels of rivers, where declining water levels threaten navigability and the ability of rivers to cool power plants, etc.

• Biodiversity. Europe's rich tapestry of ecosystems, from dense forests to extensive wetlands, supports a wide range of species and provides essential services such as pollination, water purification and climate regulation. But these biodiversity hotspots are under threat from habitat loss, pollution, invasive species and overexploitation. Biodiversity loss threatens to destabilise ecosystems and the services they provide, which are essential for human survival and economic stability. The ability to conserve biodiversity depends on robust conservation efforts, sustainable management practices and the integration of biodiversity considerations into broader environmental policies. A commitment to reversing biodiversity loss not only addresses ecological health, but also ensures long-term sustainability and resilience to environmental change.

• Making ecosystem services tradable. Nature-based solutions and/or ecosystem services are expected to receive more attention. The focus may be on large-scale efforts rather than small-scale examples. The 'sponge function' of nature in terms of water retention could be an example. Overall, the debate on how to monetise ecosystem services to ensure that they are 'valued' or 'priced' is expected to become an issue. Unless we change our economic system, it will be necessary to put a price on ecosystem services / nature-based solutions and find a way for people and businesses to pay for them.

• Climate justice. Transformative efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change are also about climate justice. It is a critical aspect of addressing environmental challenges, emphasising the need to fairly distribute the burdens and benefits of climate change and its mitigation. While climate change affects everyone, its impacts are disproportionately felt by marginalised and vulnerable communities, both within Europe and globally. Europe is likely to focus more on participatory governance, where affected communities have a greater say in shaping climate policy. This approach aims not only to make climate action more effective, but also to restore and build trust among citizens, thereby strengthening the social fabric required for a truly inclusive and just environmental transition.

Transformative social values

European society is changing. This includes major debates about different generations and their values or expectations of life, an ageing population and its implications for the functioning of our societies, economies and welfare systems, but also changing and diverging values - for example, the rise of populism and Euroscepticism. In part, all this touches on the very foundations of our value systems, including our undervaluing of democracies, the rule of law, etc. Following the outcomes of the Conference on the Future of Europe, strengthening a pan-European identity and improving citizens' access to policy making will be more prominent in the future. The focus on transformative societal values may become stronger and a few more aspects may enter the debate:

• Readiness for transformation. Knowledge foresight and adaptive capacity will only help if there is a willingness to transform. This goes hand in hand with a shared vision of what a desirable future might look like in response to changing circumstances. This means overcoming societal inertia and using a shock as an opportunity for long-term strategic change. As if defining a shared vision of the future that differs substantially from the present were not difficult enough, the will to transform must move from vision to action. In the absence of a blueprint for the future, this action will need to balance a high degree of (a) experimentation and self-organisation with (b) a strong and wholehearted commitment to change. In other words, it needs to balance between allowing different semi-independent networks and actors to test their way towards the vision, and a full-fledged 'mission economy' where all efforts are directed towards the desired future.

• Open EU Global Gateway. Taking the EU Global Gateway concept a step further from global investment, the EU could play a more proactive role in promoting democracy and human rights globally, using its diplomatic and economic leverage.

• Ageing population. Population growth in Europe has slowed down and projections show that this trend will continue in the coming years, which has so far not been offset by immigration. At the same time, increasing urbanisation is exacerbating the situation as more and more people are concentrated in large urban areas, leaving rural areas behind. The ageing of the population due to low fertility rates and rising life expectancy, while positive in itself, is another demographic challenge, not least because of the risks it poses to the workforce, welfare and health systems, in particular in terms of labour market shortages, fiscal sustainability, infrastructure and long-term affordable health care, workplace adaptation, etc. Skills mismatches, the growing number of people with disabilities, and the increasing number of people with mental health problems are all factors that need to be taken into account. Skills mismatch, the growing gap between available skills and demand, is another challenge. In particular, skills shortages can have potentially challenging future implications for growth and competitiveness, as it is an issue that triggers the demographic, economic and social landscape.

• Generational change. Europe is currently experiencing a significant generational shift, with implications for societal values and the willingness to embrace change. As baby boomers retire and millennials and generation Z become more dominant in societal roles, priorities are expected to shift towards greater inclusivity, environmental sustainability and technological integration. This shift is expected to manifest itself in the changing landscape of European politics, workplace dynamics and consumer behaviour. As this generational change progresses, we could see a transformative phase in its approach to governance, economic models and social welfare systems, potentially leading to a more agile, forward-looking continent better equipped to deal with global challenges.

The transformative efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change described above will have a profound impact on local and regional development in the EU, potentially exacerbating territorial disparities. The need for large-scale systemic action underlines the complexity and urgency of tackling climate change, as small-scale local action risks becoming insufficient. This requires decisions where costs and benefits are separated by long time lags and spatial distances. For example, investment in water retention and management infrastructure in a region may take years to deliver benefits, while the immediate costs are borne locally. Similarly, integrating biodiversity conservation into broader environmental policies requires sustained efforts across regions, some of which may reap immediate benefits while others may experience delayed benefits.

In addition, the monetisation of ecosystem services and the focus on climate justice highlight the need for equitable distribution of resources and benefits. Transformative climate action must take into account the differential impacts on marginalised and vulnerable communities and ensure that these groups do not bear a disproportionate burden. The concept of climate justice emphasises participatory governance, giving affected communities a greater voice in policy-making. This approach can help build trust and strengthen social cohesion, which is essential for a just environmental transition. In addition, as Europe faces demographic changes such as an ageing population and urbanisation, addressing skills mismatches and fostering a willingness to change will be essential to realise the potential benefits of these climate initiatives. Balancing experimentation with coordinated efforts will be key to navigating the complex landscape of transformative societal and environmental change.

by Kai Böhme