We imagine desirable futures (4): From rhetoric to results

February 2025

Recent discussions about the future often focus on what we fear rather than what we want. In early December, we launched a series of blog posts to explore possible avenues for positive - albeit realistic - future narratives. It is based on the belief that a broad dialogue about positive futures could inspire openness to change and optimism for transitions that lead to a better world.

The fourth thought experiment explores a possible desirable future, centred on the rediscovery of the importance of sound evidence to escape populist Pied Pipers.

Escape the Pied Pipers: Back to evidence

In recent years, European societies have been swept up by the appeal of populist rhetoric, oversimplified narratives and the cacophony of sensationalist (social) media. These forces have often acted as Pied Pipers, drawing people into emotionally charged but shallow discourses. But beneath this noisy surface, there are weak signals that point to the potential for a quieter but powerful shift. People are tired of being manipulated, misinformed or given superficial answers to complex questions. A yearning for serious information, intellectual honesty and nuanced debate is emerging.

Drivers: Longing for substance

The shift away from oversimplification, fake news and populist rhetoric is not just a reaction to societal fatigue; it is a movement towards a more engaged, informed and accountable Europe. Signs – from grassroots fact-checking initiatives to the success of subscription-based journalism – show that this yearning for evidence and honesty is more than a passing trend.

This thought experiment draws on drivers of such a shift, and highlights weak signals that suggest it may already be underway.

Craving truth amid overload (psychological drivers). At the heart of this change is a psychological shift. Information overload and a barrage of conflicting narratives have left many people feeling distrustful of what they see and hear. This fatigue fuels a desire for clarity, stability and reliability. In a world of exaggerated claims and quick fixes, there's a growing appetite for slow, deliberate truth-telling. Faint signals of this shift can be seen in the growing popularity of platforms like The Conversation (Abre numa nova janela), which prioritise expert-led content, and the resurgence of long-form podcasts and investigative documentaries that offer depth rather than sound bites.

Disillusionment with oversimplification (societal drivers). As the promises of populist leaders and superficial narratives fail to deliver meaningful results, frustration is building. The polarising rhetoric that has dominated much of the last decade has left many citizens longing for constructive dialogue and pragmatic solutions. This growing disillusionment is particularly pronounced among younger generations, who are more likely to demand transparency and evidence-based decision-making. Grassroots movements for truth and accountability, such as fact-checking initiatives and media transparency campaigns, are gaining traction. Citizens are organising to fight disinformation and demand higher standards of governance. This builds on civil society organisations such as the European Digital Media Observatory (Abre numa nova janela), which aims to tackle disinformation at both national and EU level.

Tools for verification and transparency (technological drivers). While technology is often criticised for its role in spreading misinformation, it is also becoming an enabler of truth. Advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning have led to the development of tools that allow individuals to verify claims in real time. Fact-checking platforms such as Full Fact (Abre numa nova janela) and Snopes (Abre numa nova janela) are increasingly integrated into public discourse, while browser extensions and apps offer quick assessments of the credibility of online content. Regulatory pressure on tech companies to prioritise transparency is also reshaping the digital landscape. Platforms are being pushed to combat the spread of fake news, promote quality content and make their algorithms more accountable.

Paying for quality (economic drivers). The financial model that underpins much of today's media - clickbait-driven advertising - has come under increasing scrutiny. As trust in ad-funded outlets declines, subscription-based journalism and independent, non-profit media are gaining in popularity. People are increasingly willing to pay for quality, with platforms. The economic squeeze on traditional media has also led to cross-border collaborations between journalists. Investigative projects such as the Panama Papers (Abre numa nova janela), which pooled resources to tackle complex global issues, show the potential for economically sustainable, high-impact journalism.

Accountability and reform (political and governance drivers). Governments and institutions are responding to public demand for transparency with reforms aimed at increasing accountability. Open data initiatives, anti-corruption campaigns and greater control of political messaging are slowly gaining ground. The EU, for example, has introduced measures to combat disinformation, including the Digital Services Act, which requires platforms to take greater responsibility for harmful content. National governments are also experimenting with public information campaigns to promote critical thinking and media literacy. Finland, often cited as a leader in this area, has integrated media literacy into its education system, equipping citizens with the tools to navigate complex information landscapes.

A renaissance of depth and expertise (cultural drivers). Culturally, there is a renewed appreciation of depth and expertise. As people become disillusioned with soundbite culture, long-form content such as books, podcasts and documentaries are experiencing a renaissance. Audiences are turning to platforms like TED (Abre numa nova janela), where expert voices can share ideas, or to in-depth investigative reporting from outlets like Investigate Europe (Abre numa nova janela) or Corrective (Abre numa nova janela). Celebrating expertise over charisma, people are increasingly drawn to nuanced debates and discussions that go beyond easy answers. Intellectual honesty and integrity are becoming more attractive than flashy rhetoric, as citizens demand leaders who respect their intelligence and embrace complexity.

Results: Possible futures

By embracing these drivers and cultivating an environment where truth and trust thrive, Europe can create a future that values substance over style, nuance over noise, and honesty over empty promises. The Pied Piper's spell may be breaking, and in its place a new culture of critical engagement and intellectual curiosity is emerging. Europe is moving beyond the distractions of superficial narratives and divisive rhetoric. The result is a continent where cohesion and development are underpinned by trust, substance and a shared commitment to progress. This transformation is creating a Europe that is not only better equipped to tackle its challenges, but also more inclusive, resilient and united in its diversity.

The shift towards evidence, transparency and intellectual honesty is leading to profound changes in governance, public decision-making and civic engagement. This shift strengthens cohesion and creates new opportunities for local and regional development, ensuring that all types of territories across the EU contribute to and benefit from a culture rooted in trust and substance.

Strengthening good governance for sustainable development. Good governance is becoming the cornerstone of Europe's transformation. By embedding transparency, accountability and anti-corruption measures in public institutions, local and regional authorities are better equipped to deliver meaningful results. These principles ensure that public investment is targeted effectively and delivers tangible returns in terms of economic growth, social cohesion and environmental sustainability. Governance reforms also promote cooperation between different levels of government, creating an integrated framework in which local, regional and national authorities work together. This coordination ensures that public resources are used wisely and that investments – whether in infrastructure, education or innovation – meet both immediate needs and long-term development goals. Citizens also play an active role in monitoring and shaping governance through participatory mechanisms that enhance accountability and trust.

Evidence-based decision-making. A culture of evidence permeates policy-making at all levels, enabling public authorities to make informed decisions that reflect local needs and wider European priorities. Evidence-based approaches guide the allocation of resources, ensuring that funding has maximum impact and supports balanced territorial development. For example, evidence informs strategies for economic transition, whether from fossil fuels to renewables, or for revitalising underperforming areas through tailored policies. These evidence-based approaches promote more equitable development, enabling communities to adapt to global challenges while preserving their unique strengths.

Higher quality public debate with empowered and engaged citizens. The evidence renaissance is not limited to institutions; it is also transforming the way citizens engage in public life. Informed, critical and engaged citizens are driving a higher quality of public debate, moving discussions away from polarising rhetoric and towards constructive dialogue. This collective focus on evidence strengthens local development dynamics, increases civic responsibility and fosters a shared sense of ownership of the future. Across Europe, examples of participatory processes demonstrate the power of engaged communities. From town hall meetings debating climate change strategies to neighbourhood forums prioritising local investments, these platforms ensure that decisions reflect the needs and aspirations of diverse populations. By valuing evidence and expertise, these debates become inclusive spaces where complex issues are addressed with nuance and clarity.

And next …

This thought experiment shows that the rediscovery of detail and individual responsibility is also about understanding and capitalising on the unique strengths of places. By integrating territorial considerations into these thematic outcomes, Europe becomes a mosaic of empowered individuals, resilient communities and innovative regions. Together, these efforts create a Europe that values detail, responsibility and diversity, and offers a hopeful and actionable way forward.

This is just one possible narrative among many. There is space to explore other assumptions and drivers, as well as alternative pathways that could shape Europe's future. The process of imagining these futures is not about predicting outcomes, but about inspiring action and fostering conversations that bring us closer to the society we want to build.

What are your ideas and perspectives on standing up for democracy and diversity? We invite you to join the debate and help shape the conversation about Europe's future.

by Kai Böhme