David "Die Unbewohnbare Erde" Wallace-Wells über das Leben in permanenten Krisenzustand: How to Live in a Climate ‘Permanent Emergency’ (Öffnet in neuem Fenster). Willkommen im Climate Realism.

For years now, hyperbolic headliners have used those kinds of disasters of warming to declare that the age of climate change had arrived. This year suggests the possibility of a new arrival — the age of adaptation, or what climate-and-energy researcher Juan Moreno-Cruz yesterday called “climate realism.”

Alarmism, he said, was “useless,” and even efforts to decarbonize have served as a kind of distraction. “Stop dreaming up climate solutions, think of climate managing strategies,” he admonished.

Talking climate solutions has left us unprepared for actual climate change. We keep running models and fighting over which “solution” is the best, but we have done nothing to address the impacts of climate change.

Managing climate change is not as sexy as solving climate change, but it’s what we need. Yes, we need real action to achieve deep decarbonization in our economy. There is no amount of adaptation we can do if we don‘t get emissions under control. But we already baked in so much warming we need to deal with it now. We painted ourselves into this corner, and we need to navigate our way out of it. Dreaming about a future carbon-free system will do nothing for people in India and Pakistan today.

Perhaps the great awakening on warming has already happened — or keeps happening and keeps being forgotten, among other reasons so that we can continue to believe we stand just at the threshold of climate suffering rather than well beyond it. But the great awakening on adaptation probably still lies ahead of us. Or maybe that “permanent emergency” is beginning right now.

End of Growth totally accurate

1972 hatte der Club of Rome in seiner berühmten Studie "Die Grenzen des Wachstums (Öffnet in neuem Fenster)" berechnet, dass industrielle Gesellschaften innerhalb des 21. Jahrhunderts unter bestimmten Bedingungen kollabieren werden, wobei sich "Kollaps" auf einen Rückgang der industriellen Produktion und der Bruttoinlandsprodukte bezieht.

Nun hat Gaya Herrington, Analystin bei einem der größten Wirtschaftsprüfungsunternehmens der Welt, die Modelle und Berechnungen des Club of Rome mit Daten des 21. Jahrhunderts verglichen und kommt zu dem Schluß: Wir sind genau im Zeitplan, Wachstum dürfte ab 2040 stagnieren und schließlich in eine langfristige Rezession abrutschen, also einen Rückgang von Wirtschaftstätigkeit, kombiniert mit einem weltweiten Rückgang von Bevölkerungszahlen und Nahrungsmittelproduktion.

Der Guardian hat ein Interview mit Herrington (Öffnet in neuem Fenster): "The MIT scientists said we needed to act now to achieve a smooth transition and avoid costs. That didn’t happen, so we’re seeing the impact of climate change."

Die Studie findet man auf der Website der KPMG (Öffnet in neuem Fenster), Vice hat einen Artikel darüber: MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule. (Öffnet in neuem Fenster)

A remarkable new study by a director at one of the largest accounting firms in the world has found that a famous, decades-old warning from MIT about the risk of industrial civilization collapsing appears to be accurate based on new empirical data. (...)

In 1972, a team of MIT scientists got together to study the risks of civilizational collapse. Their system dynamics model published by the Club of Rome identified impending ‘limits to growth’ (LtG) that meant industrial civilization was on track to collapse sometime within the 21st century, due to overexploitation of planetary resources.

The controversial MIT analysis generated heated debate, and was widely derided at the time by pundits who misrepresented its findings and methods. But the analysis has now received stunning vindication from a study written by a senior director at professional services giant KPMG, one of the 'Big Four' accounting firms as measured by global revenue.

The study was published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology in November 2020 and is available on the KPMG website. It concludes that the current business-as-usual trajectory of global civilization is heading toward the terminal decline of economic growth within the coming decade—and at worst, could trigger societal collapse by around 2040.

The study represents the first time a top analyst working within a mainstream global corporate entity has taken the ‘limits to growth’ model seriously. Its author, Gaya Herrington, is Sustainability and Dynamic System Analysis Lead at KPMG in the United States. However, she decided to undertake the research as a personal project to understand how well the MIT model stood the test of time. (...)

Titled ‘Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data’, the study attempts to assess how MIT’s ‘World3’ model stacks up against new empirical data. Previous studies that attempted to do this found that the model’s worst-case scenarios accurately reflected real-world developments. However, the last study of this nature was completed in 2014.

NASA predicts worldwide floodings from wobbly moon orbits

Die NASA sagt zunehmende Überflutungen in Küstengegenden ab 2030 voraus (Öffnet in neuem Fenster)aufgrund von unregelmäßigen Umlaufbahnen des Monds, die zusammen mit steigenden Meeresspiegeln und zunehmenden Stürmen für eien Anstieg der Hochwasser sorgen. You ain't seen nothing yet.

Conversation: You may have heard the ‘moon wobble’ will intensify coastal floods. Well, here’s what that means (Öffnet in neuem Fenster).

The orbit of the moon around the sun is not quite on a flat plane (planar); the actual orbit oscillates up and down a bit. Think of a spinning plate on a stick — the plate spins, but also wobbles up and down. When the moon is at particular parts of its wobbling orbit, it pulls on the water in the oceans a bit more. This means for some years during the 18.6-year cycle, some high tides are higher than they would have otherwise been.

This results in increases to daily tidal rises, and this, in turn, will exacerbate coastal flooding, whether it be nuisance flooding in vulnerable areas, or magnified flooding during a storm. A major wobble amplification phase will occur in the mid-2030s, when climate change will make the problem become severe in some cases.

The triple whammy of the wobble in the moon’s orbit, ongoing upwards creep in sea levels from ocean warming, and more intense storms associated with climate change, will bring the impacts of sea-level rise earlier than previously expected — in many locations around the world.

Men fuck up the world more then women fuck up the world because MMMEAT and VROOOOOM

Neue Studie im Journal of Industrial Ecology über CO2-Verbrauch nach Geschlecht. Überraschung! Männer fressen mehr Fleisch und fahren mehr Autos und stoßen damit 16% mehr Treibhausgase aus, als Frauen - obwohl sie nur 2% mehr Güter verbrauche. Es liegt also an der Art der Güter, nicht am Verbrauch selbst. [Hier einen Absatz über den Toxic Masculinity vorstellen, den man nicht formulieren muss, da er sich logisch aus dem bereits Gesagten ergibt.]

Ich habe mich neulich kurz mit einem jungen Russen über vegetarische Fleischersatzfalafelbällchen unterhalten. Ich mag die Teile, die schmecken gut und es gibt keinen Grund, die Dinger nicht zu essen, man muss deshalb nicht gleich vollständiger Vegetarier werden. Das Argument für seine völlige Ablehnung von vegetarischen Fleischersatzfalafelbällchen war “ABER FLEISCH!” Case closed.

The study gave a number of reasons why men are responsible for higher carbon emissions despite spending a similar amount to women.

It said women tended to spend money on "low-emitting products," such as healthcare, furnishings and clothes, while men spent 70% of their money on what the study called "greenhouse gas-intensive items," including fuel for cars.

When it comes to transportation and vacations, single men produce more emissions than women because of their higher car use -- while the study also found that car-based holidays in Sweden are six times more polluting than ones taken by train.

Annika Carlsson-Kanyama, the lead researcher on the study, told CNN that men "could really learn from women's expenditure habits, which produce significantly less carbon emissions despite the similar amount of spending."

Amazon now emitts CO₂ and thats bad

Der Regenwald stößt zum ersten mal mehr CO₂ aus, als er absorbiert (Öffnet in neuem Fenster), auch ein Ergebnis von Bolsonaros gnadenloser Politik der Ausbeutung des Regenwalds.

Telepolis zum gleichen Thema (Öffnet in neuem Fenster): "Richtig schlechte Nachrichten aus dem Amazonasbecken. Der dortige Regenwald verliert seine Funktion als CO₂-Schwamm. Eine Mitte Juli im Fachmagazin Nature veröffentlichte Studie kommt zu dem Schluss, dass aufgrund der voranschreitenden Abholzung der Wald in seiner Gesamtheit inzwischen von einer wichtigen Senke zu einer Quelle des Treibhausgases geworden ist."

The Amazon rainforest is now emitting more carbon dioxide than it is able to absorb, scientists have confirmed for the first time.

The emissions amount to a billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, according to a study. The giant forest had previously been a carbon sink, absorbing the emissions driving the climate crisis, but is now causing its acceleration, researchers said.

Most of the emissions are caused by fires, many deliberately set to clear land for beef and soy production. But even without fires, hotter temperatures and droughts mean the south-eastern Amazon has become a source of CO2, rather than a sink.

thisisfine.jpg etc

Wetter-Apps zeigen nun die Wahrscheinlichkeit an, eine kommende Hitzewelle zu überleben (Öffnet in neuem Fenster). Climate Change Survival, there's an app for that.

Gathering of billionaire overlords aside, wtf happened to Zucks eyebrows? (Öffnet in neuem Fenster)

Wasser-Piraten in Kalifornien. What's next? Die Eispiraten? Thieves are stealing California’s scarce water. Where’s it going? Illegal marijuana farms. (Öffnet in neuem Fenster)

“Our climate change turning point is right here, right now: People are dying. Aquatic animals are baking in their shells. Fruit is being cooked on the tree (Öffnet in neuem Fenster). It’s time to act.”

Die Waldbrände in Oregon brennen so intensiv, dass sie das Wetter verändern und dabei Blitze und Feuertornados erzeugen. Apocalypse Now! How Bad Is the Bootleg Fire? It’s Generating Its Own Weather. (Öffnet in neuem Fenster)

A towering cloud of hot air, smoke and moisture that reached airliner heights and spawned lightning. Wind-driven fronts of flame that have stampeded across the landscape, often leapfrogging firebreaks. Even, possibly, a rare fire tornado.

The Bootleg Fire in Southern Oregon, spurred by months of drought and last month’s blistering heat wave, is the largest wildfire so far this year in the United States, having already burned more than 340,000 acres, or 530 square miles, of forest and grasslands.

And at a time when climate change is causing wildfires to be larger and more intense, it’s also one of the most extreme, so big and hot that it’s affecting winds and otherwise disrupting the atmosphere.“

The fire is so large and generating so much energy and extreme heat that it’s changing the weather,” said Marcus Kauffman, a spokesman for the state forestry department.

😶