We imagine desirable futures (1): European island of happiness

December 2024

Recent discussions about the future often focus on what we fear rather than what we want. Visions and scenarios tend to be framed around what we hope to avoid rather than what we aspire to. They often boil down to opposites of the present. They are essentially based on negations. Honestly, how attractive is such a picture of the future?

Put another way, why is it so difficult to imagine a desirable future based on positive change rather than negation? A broad dialogue on positive futures could act as a guide, inspiring openness to change and optimism for transitions that lead to a better world.

Over the coming months, we will try to explore different possible avenues for positive - albeit realistic - future narratives. Through this step-by-step approach, we may be able to pave the way for a broader societal discussion about hopeful futures. Each time there will be a short version in the main text of the blog, followed by the full version at the end of the blog.

European island of happiness (short version)

The thought experiment begins with some thoughts on key assumptions about the future, followed by some thoughts on possible outcomes.

There are a few assumptions that set the framework for our future narrative. For this exercise, we have identified two sets of assumptions that are rooted in today's world. The first relates to the external factors driving developments in Europe. The second set of assumptions relates to internal drivers, mainly concerning decisions taken within the EU.

External drivers: Europe united in isolation

In recent years, the global landscape has shifted towards increasing geopolitical and economic protectionism, creating a multipolar world in which several influential blocs hold sway. This new multipolarity is characterised by a resurgence of protectionist policies as countries prioritise national interests, secure supply chains and seek resilience against vulnerabilities exposed by recent global crises. As a result, the international system is fragmenting, alliances are shifting and competition between emerging blocs is intensifying.

In this context, EU member states are finding new impetus to unite more closely, promoting the EU to move towards economic, political and technological isolation. The EU is turning inwards, prioritising unity and integration to address its limitations as a smaller global player. This shift is reshaping the political, economic and technological landscape, while driving innovation and sustainability. Protectionist trends and reduced global trade spur a focus on self-sufficiency, with the EU promoting energy independence, reshoring production, and embracing circular economy practices. Technologically, Europe is asserting sovereignty through secure, localised IT solutions, fostering innovation while tackling challenges such as climate change and cybersecurity. Despite global stagnation in climate cooperation, the EU remains committed to green transitions and climate resilience, positioning itself as a leader in sustainable development. This inward focus signals a transformative phase, redefining Europe's role and priorities on the world stage.

Internal drivers: The European way

In navigating a complex global landscape dominated by powerful geopolitical and economic blocs, Europe can follow a distinctive path, reminiscent of Sweden's 'third way' during the Cold War. Sweden's choice to maintain neutrality and promote a unique socio-economic model allowed it to stand apart from both capitalist and communist systems, promoting peace and social justice. Similarly, Europe's approach could offer an alternative to conventional economic powers, embracing values of well-being, sustainability and social cohesion.

Europe is undergoing a profound societal transformation, shifting the focus from economic output to well-being and quality of life. This cultural shift prioritises work-life balance and personal fulfilment, challenging traditional measures of prosperity. Economically, the emphasis on well-being beyond GDP is reshaping structures to address skills shortages and promote volunteering and social economy initiatives. Demographic dynamics, including an ageing population and the arrival of refugees, are redefining the social fabric, while technological advances in automation and AI are transforming the labour market and enabling a more fulfilling society. Alongside these changes, Europe's unwavering commitment to the green transition strengthens its resilience by investing in climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation and sustainable development, ensuring a future that prioritises both societal well-being and environmental protection.

Results: Possible futures

Based on these assumptions, Europe is embarking on a profound social and economic transformation. This journey is guided by a shared vision focused on improving the well-being and quality of life of all people, wherever they live on the continent. Such a vision of a desirable future is beginning to take shape, offering a more hopeful outlook for people and places across Europe.

The rise of small and medium-sized cities. The decline in the global influence of large corporations and the shift away from GDP-driven growth is fueling the rise of small and medium-sized cities in Europe. Freed from the pressures of dense urban centres, innovative small businesses are thriving in these areas, prioritising sustainability and local resilience. At the same time, many people are choosing to live in smaller urban centres, attracted by their more manageable pace, better quality of life and stronger community ties. This decentralised urbanisation is an opportunity for Europe to spread economic activity more evenly across its regions. It supports thriving networks of medium-sized cities and towns that offer wider access to employment, culture and public services, while avoiding the challenges of overcrowded metropolitan centres.

Proximity, social and circular economy models are gaining ground. Proximity, social and circular economy models are reshaping European societies as they move away from consumption-driven growth. The rise of localised living concepts, such as the 15-minute city, is empowering communities to produce goods close to home, reducing reliance on long supply chains and increasing regional resilience. At the same time, the social economy is flourishing, with cooperatives, voluntary organisations and social enterprises prioritising collective wellbeing and strengthening community ties. These shifts are in line with the circular economy's focus on reusing and recycling resources to minimise waste and environmental impact, fostering a more sustainable and adaptable society.

A life of greater independence and satisfaction. A life of greater independence and satisfaction is emerging in Europe, with reduced working hours and greater flexibility allowing people to focus on fulfilling activities such as community initiatives, personal projects and spending time in nature. These activities often strengthen local ties and foster a renewed sense of belonging. As stress decreases and sustainable consumption becomes the norm, life satisfaction increases, social cohesion deepens and the natural environment benefits from reduced pressure on ecosystems. This holistic approach prioritises well-being, sustainability and shared values, shaping a balanced and resilient European way of life.

And next …

This initial exploration of a positive future narrative may start from a set of somewhat pessimistic assumptions and arrive at a future narrative that borders on the idealistic. However, some of these ideas may well be worth pursuing and testing in other contexts. There is also scope to consider alternative assumptions and drivers that could shape different outcomes. In the future, we will continue to refine this approach, with the aim of developing a more systematic framework for envisioning desirable futures.

What ideas or perspectives do you have on positive futures narratives? We invite you to join the conversation and share your thoughts.

Long version

The thought experiment begins with some thoughts on key assumptions about the future, followed by some thoughts on possible outcomes.

There are a few assumptions that set the framework for our future narrative. For this exercise, we have identified two sets of assumptions that are rooted in today's world. The first relates to the external factors driving developments in Europe. The second set of assumptions relates to internal drivers, mainly concerning decisions taken within the EU.

External drivers: Europe united in isolation

In recent years, the global landscape has shifted towards increasing geopolitical and economic protectionism, creating a multipolar world in which several influential blocs hold sway. The United States and China dominate this shift, competing fiercely for technology, trade and global influence. Meanwhile, other regions are emerging to assert their presence. The Arab world, fuelled by energy resources and strategic investment, is seeking autonomy and greater influence. India is emerging as a formidable economic and technological powerhouse, leveraging its vast market and demographic strengths. In Latin America, nations are moving towards regional integration and diversifying partnerships to reduce dependence on traditional powers. Russia is reasserting its geopolitical influence through energy policy and military action, while African countries, buoyed by economic growth and a youthful population, are raising their profile on the world stage.

This new multipolarity is characterised by a resurgence of protectionist policies as countries prioritise national interests, secure supply chains and seek resilience against vulnerabilities exposed by recent global crises. As a result, the international system is fragmenting, alliances are shifting and competition between emerging blocs is intensifying. In this context, EU member states are finding new impetus to unite more closely, promoting the EU to move towards economic, political and technological isolation.

Political landscape. The fragmentation of geopolitical blocs, coupled with an increase in global conflicts, has put pressure on EU member states to consolidate their unity. Individually, EU countries are small political and economic players on this global stage. Driven by this reality, the vision of a closer EU, once perceived as an abstract goal, is now resurfacing under the influence of external pressures. This internal consolidation allows the EU to focus increasingly on its own affairs and integration, and to retreat somewhat from global ambitions. This shift is underpinned by memories of the EU's past achievements, but recognises its current limitations as a smaller global player. This inward turn is not limited to political matters; it is also reshaping Europe's economic priorities.

Economic adjustments. Protectionist trends are redefining global trade patterns, and as international trade with the EU becomes more difficult, the volume of trade with other regions falls significantly. As a result, the EU is shifting its economic priorities towards greater self-sufficiency, focusing on natural resources, energy independence and localised manufacturing and services.

Many multinationals are responding to this new era by restructuring their operations to serve different regional markets. For example, European multinationals are separating their European operations from those in other regions, allowing smaller European companies to take advantage of local market opportunities. Moreover, as multinationals reduce their European presence, domestic firms gain space to innovate and compete.

This inward focus is also driving transformative innovation across sectors. Reduced dependence on global energy markets is accelerating the shift to renewable energy sources and intensifying efforts to improve energy efficiency. The trend towards reshoring production is driving advances in additive manufacturing, sustainable production methods, circular economy practices and recycling. The services and IT sectors, now less globally integrated, are stimulating new waves of innovation within Europe. Such shifts do not happen overnight and are accompanied by higher costs and deviations from established quality standards. Nevertheless, a growing enthusiasm for prosumer models - where consumers actively participate in production - is opening up new perspectives and opportunities.

Technological developments. Europe's technological development faces challenges such as climate change, cyber security and the potential manipulation of political and social debates by foreign entities. In response, the EU is emerging as a champion of data protection for citizens and businesses. This commitment to security is driving the development of a 'splinternet', where global internet connectivity is fragmented into regionally limited networks. The EU is increasingly prioritising the development of its own internet, partially disconnected from other regions, in order to strengthen data security.

This technology ecosystem, more detached from global dynamics, fosters innovative and experimental players that develop uniquely European IT solutions. Europe's emphasis on security and privacy not only strengthens its technological sovereignty, but also fosters an environment in which cutting-edge local technologies can flourish.

Climate change realities. As global climate targets remain unmet, extreme weather events, water scarcity and climate-induced migration are increasingly disrupting societies. Despite a stalemate in global cooperation on climate action, Europe is pressing ahead with efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The EU is prioritising green transitions while scaling up adaptation measures, demonstrating its commitment to a sustainable future. In this context, climate change remains a powerful driver for change in Europe, guiding a shift towards resilience and long-term environmental sustainability.

Internal drivers: The European way

In navigating a complex global landscape dominated by powerful geopolitical and economic blocs, Europe can follow a distinctive path, reminiscent of Sweden's 'third way' during the Cold War. Sweden's choice to maintain neutrality and promote a unique socio-economic model allowed it to stand apart from both capitalist and communist systems, promoting peace and social justice. Similarly, Europe's approach could offer an alternative to conventional economic powers, embracing values of well-being, sustainability and social cohesion.

Societal transformation. European society is increasingly characterised by a shift towards well-being and quality of life rather than mere economic output. Moving away from the relentless 'hamster wheel' of past decades, many people now seek a balance that prioritises work-life balance. Working fewer hours and earning less is not necessarily seen as a loss, but is welcomed if it leads to a higher quality of life enriched by non-economic factors. This reorientation towards well-being reflects a profound cultural shift in which quality of life and personal fulfilment take precedence over the pursuit of wealth.

Economic transformation. In line with societal changes, Europe's economic focus is broadening to include measures of well-being beyond GDP. With an ageing population and reduced working hours, economic structures need to adapt to address emerging skills shortages. Voluntary work, social economy initiatives and prosumer activities are growing in importance, driven by people's desire to make a meaningful contribution rather than accumulate wealth. This shift represents a gradual move away from traditional measures of growth and consumption, and opens the door to a new understanding of prosperity that puts societal well-being at its core.

Demographic dynamics. Demographic trends continue to shape this evolving Europe. An ageing population and a steady flow of climate and war refugees are changing the social fabric, bringing in people who are often motivated not by wealth but by a desire for a better quality of life. At the same time, some of Europe's most skilled and entrepreneurial minds may seek opportunities abroad, attracted by international career prospects and economic incentives. This demographic reality is forcing Europe to continue to innovate and find new ways to retain talent, integrate newcomers and sustain its unique model of social well-being.

Technological evolution. Europe's economic and social transformations are being reinforced by advances in technology, particularly automation. Robotics, AI and additive manufacturing play a growing role in compensating for a shrinking workforce, as fewer hours per worker and fewer workers overall reshape the labour market. Rather than seeing automation as a threat, Europe is embracing it as an opportunity, freeing individuals to engage in activities beyond routine work and enabling a more fulfilling society in line with evolving societal values.

Commitment to a green transition. Despite the acceleration of climate change, Europe continues to push for emission reductions, climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation. EU Member States are making strong, coordinated efforts to mitigate environmental impacts while investing in adaptation strategies to protect their communities and natural ecosystems. The commitment to a green transition underlines Europe's pursuit of sustainable development and the well-being of its people, and demonstrates its resilience in the face of global environmental challenges.

Results: Possible futures

Based on these assumptions, Europe is embarking on a profound social and economic transformation. This journey is guided by a shared vision focused on improving the well-being and quality of life of all people, wherever they live on the continent. Such a vision of a desirable future is beginning to take shape, offering a more hopeful outlook for people and places across Europe.

The rise of small and medium-sized cities. As European companies reduce their involvement on the global stage, the influence and agglomeration of large international corporations in major metropolitan centres is beginning to wane. This reduction in external pressure allows innovative and entrepreneurial small businesses to gain momentum, many of which are establishing themselves outside the major urban areas. Freed from the constraints of dense, competitive city centres, smaller businesses are better able to prioritise sustainability, local needs and community resilience.

Meanwhile, with a growing societal focus on quality of life and well-being beyond GDP, many people are choosing to move to smaller and medium-sized cities, perceiving them as more manageable, less stressful and ultimately more fulfilling places to live. These smaller urban centres offer an alternative to the relentless pace of big city life, allowing individuals to connect more deeply with their communities and surroundings.

This shift suggests a new, decentralised approach to European urbanisation. By focusing on smaller communities, Europe can avoid the strains of overcrowded metropolitan areas and instead promote a network of thriving medium-sized cities and towns across its regions. These smaller centres encourage a more balanced distribution of economic activity, giving more residents access to employment opportunities, cultural life and public services without the disadvantages associated with large urban agglomerations.

Proximity, social and circular economy models are gaining ground. As European societies gradually move away from consumption as a means of status or self-identification, the structure of the economy is beginning to change. New economic models based on proximity - such as the concept of the 15-minute city - are becoming increasingly popular. This idea of localised living, supported by innovations in additive manufacturing and sustainable production, enables communities to produce many goods close to home, reducing dependence on long-distance supply chains. The proximity economy empowers communities to be more resilient by ensuring that essential resources and products are accessible within their own regions.

The principles of the social economy are gaining renewed traction, signalling a cultural shift towards values that prioritise collective well-being over individual wealth. As people become more involved in local activities, initiatives such as cooperatives, volunteer-led organisations and other social enterprises are flourishing. These developments are in line with the shift towards well-being beyond economic growth, as citizens seek to contribute in ways that strengthen community ties, inclusiveness and mutual support.

Such changes are accelerating Europe's transition to a circular economy, where resources are reused, recycled and reassembled to minimise waste. The circular economy enables a more sustainable approach to resource management, reducing Europe's ecological footprint and allowing for greater ecological balance. Together, these economic models foster a more resilient and self-sustaining society, adaptable to changing global conditions and less dependent on conventional consumption-driven growth.

A life of greater independence and satisfaction. In this new way of European life, people have more time for meaningful pursuits, freed from the pressures of a purely profit-driven society. With reduced working hours and increased flexibility, individuals can devote more energy to activities they find fulfilling, such as participating in community initiatives, pursuing personal projects or spending time in nature. Many of these activities take place in a local or regional context, allowing people to build stronger connections within their communities.

As stress levels decrease and daily life becomes less pressured, overall life satisfaction increases. People begin to feel a renewed sense of belonging and togetherness, understanding that they have actively chosen an alternative path to the competitive, consumer-driven models that dominate elsewhere. This choice strengthens social cohesion as individuals and communities rally around shared values of environmental stewardship, social solidarity and cultural diversity.

It also has a positive impact on the natural environment. As consumption habits become more sustainable, the pressure on ecosystems is reduced, resulting in healthier landscapes, cleaner air and a more biodiverse environment. By prioritising well-being over material accumulation, Europe not only benefits its citizens but also contributes to a healthier, more balanced world. This future embraces a holistic approach to life, where self-reliance, sustainability and a focus on the common good are the pillars of the European way forward.

by Kai Böhme