EU policies and global trends reshaping land use demands

November 2023

Policies and development trends have considerable impact on territorial development and land use. This has not at least been addressed by the Territorial Agenda 2030 (Opens in a new window), which highlights the need for a better understanding of impact of future developments – including trends and policies – on different types of places in Europe. It calls for stronger considerations for the territorial sensitivity of regions to ensure that policies achieve their objectives and trends can be used to stimulate wanted developments.

Taking this one step further, a recent study conducted for the Ministry of Interior and Kingdom Relations of The Netherlands (Opens in a new window) looks at potential land use impact of EU policies and global trends on the Netherlands (Opens in a new window). The study was conducted to support the process of drafting the new spatial strategy of the Netherlands.

It looks at a selection of five global trends and five EU policies. The trends include the increasing shift to renewables, working from everywhere, accelerated digitalisation and omnichannel futures, global geostrategic plans of others and the tyranny of merit (Opens in a new window). The EU policies include the European Green Deal, EU circular economy action plan and strategy, EU Biodiversity Strategy, Connecting Europe Facility and Europe Fit for the Digital Age. This is certainly only a small number of trends and policies, but it allows for some insights into different types of land use impacts.

Using a foresight-oriented approach, the study identifies key elements for each trend and policy, pinning down the main characteristics relevant for assessing the impact on land use changes. Possible impacts on the fields of politics, economics, the environment, society, and technology, based on these key characteristics, have been identified. These identified impacts have been further assessed concerning their potential consequences on different types of land use.

The overall aggregated picture suggests, that the reviewed EU policies and trends, especially the ones concerning the green transition, such as the European Green Deal, point at an expansion of agricultural and natural areas. They are also expected to contribute to the need for more transport related land use.