New Horizons for Germany 2045: Navigating the Future

October 2024

In the late summer of 2024, a thought-provoking scenario study for Germany in 2045 was published: New Horizons 2045 - Missions for Germany. It was developed by D2030, a prominent German foresight initiative, involving over 50 experts from futures studies, politics, academia, business and civil society. The main objective of the report is to explore potential pathways for Germany to transition to a low-carbon economy by 2045. This was done through a series of open foresight processes, scenario planning and broad public engagement through online dialogues and discussions.

The scenario work builds on an earlier study of scenarios for 2030 and extends the horizon to 2045. The choice of year is deliberate, in line with Germany's goal to become carbon neutral by 2045. The study provides a roadmap for tackling the multiple crises facing Germany and the world today, from climate change to digital transformation. It focuses on how Germany can achieve a socially just and resilient transition, balancing growth, competitiveness and societal well-being in an era of change.

Key messages from the scenario work

Although the scenario work is strictly focused on Germany, there are a number of key messages that are also relevant for other places:

• Urgency of transformation: The scenarios highlight the need for Germany to embark on profound transformations, particularly with regard to climate change, economic models and societal structures. Delays in these transformations will exacerbate existing problems such as social inequality and environmental degradation.

• Competing visions of the future: The scenarios show that there is no single way forward. Germany faces a stark choice between maintaining the status quo (which risks exacerbating existing problems) and embracing radical change that could lead to a more sustainable and equitable future.

• Conflicting goals: Germany's future is fraught with trade-offs. Balancing economic competitiveness with social cohesion, managing environmental sustainability alongside industrial growth, and preserving individual freedoms while promoting collective action are all major challenges that will define the country's future trajectory.

• The role of the state: Political leadership, clear vision and public mission will play a crucial role in guiding Germany through these transformations. The role of the state in coordinating and orchestrating the transformation process is a key theme throughout the scenarios.

The seven scenarios: A brief overview

These key messages are derived from seven highly developed and balanced scenarios. In brief - and without doing justice to the complexity of the scenarios - they are

• Green growth: In this scenario, Germany embarks on a gradual transformation towards a green economy, building on existing industrial strengths and aiming for a leading global role in this field. The state plays an important role in guiding green innovation through mission-driven policies, while the private sector adapts to more sustainable practices. Social inclusion remains central, with an emphasis on consensus and avoiding radical change. The transformation is evolutionary, reflecting society's willingness to change, but with a preference for stability over disruption. The scenario raises questions about whether an incremental approach will be sufficient to meet ambitious climate goals, and whether slower reforms will allow Germany to remain competitive in the global green economy.

• Sustainable system transformation: This scenario represents a significant break with traditional economic models. Germany moves away from growth and competition and adopts a degrowth strategy that prioritises climate protection, regional value creation and new social contracts, including a universal basic income. The shift is driven by a rethinking of wealth that puts well-being and environmental sustainability at the centre. The radical nature of this transformation means significant adjustments for businesses and individuals. While it offers a vision of a more sustainable and equitable society, it also carries risks, including potential resistance to lifestyle changes and concerns about long-term economic resilience.

• Radical compromises: In this scenario, Germany moves towards a more resilient economy, less focused on growth and more on sustainability and well-being. Public missions drive technological and social innovation, and new social contracts help bridge gaps between different segments of society. The focus is on building resilience through compromise, balancing individual freedoms with collective needs. Achieving these compromises requires strong political leadership and societal buy-in. The scenario highlights the importance of managing tensions between individual freedoms and collective action, and between national sovereignty and global responsibilities.

• Eco-liberal transformation: Here Germany embraces a post-industrial, data-driven economy supported by a socially open society and minimal state intervention. This scenario assumes that innovation and technological progress, particularly in green tech, will solve many of the challenges posed by climate change. The role of government is limited to setting the regulatory framework, allowing businesses and individuals to take the lead in driving green and technological innovation. Economic growth continues, but is decoupled from traditional industrial processes. The reduced role of the state raises concerns about inequality and whether the market alone can ensure that sustainability goals are met. While this scenario promotes innovation and technological progress, it may increase disparities between regions and social groups.

• Techno-optimism: Visionary companies and advanced technologies such as AI and quantum computing drive this scenario. Germany's industrial base is successfully transitioning to the digital world, with a focus on deep-tech solutions to climate challenges. Green technologies are central to addressing climate challenges, but the focus remains on economic growth. The private sector plays a dominant role, with government policies designed to support an open, competitive market environment. While this scenario offers technological solutions to climate challenges, it relies heavily on visionary companies and market forces. The emphasis on economic growth and technological progress may lead to increased social and regional inequalities.

• Alternative stabilities: This scenario accepts the realities of a changing world but focuses on maintaining economic and social stability. Government prioritises social stability, with an emphasis on consensus-based decision-making. Growth remains essential and climate targets are watered down in favour of social cohesion and industrial stability. Climate targets are acknowledged but watered down to avoid social divisions. The state and civil society play a critical role in maintaining social balance while avoiding radical change. The slower pace of change in this scenario risks leaving Germany behind in the global green transition. It also raises concerns about whether prioritising stability over transformation will exacerbate existing inequalities and environmental problems.

• Security first: In this more conservative scenario, economic stability and security are prioritised above all else. Germany remains an industrial powerhouse based on strong core industries, but growth and innovation are slow. This scenario emphasises safety and security over radical change. The state plays a strong regulatory role, protecting core industries and focusing on social security. There are efforts to address climate change, but the emphasis is on maintaining economic strength and security, with limited scope for transformative change. This scenario risks creating a society resistant to change, with limited innovation and progress towards climate goals. The focus on protecting existing structures may deepen regional disparities and slow down Germany's response to global challenges.

Key trade-offs

The scenario work identifies several key trade-offs that will shape Germany's future. These include

• Economic competitiveness versus social cohesion: While economic growth is necessary to maintain competitiveness, it can also lead to greater inequalities. Balancing growth with the need for social cohesion, fair distribution of wealth and regional integration is a major conflict.

• Environmental sustainability versus industrial stability: There is a tension between maintaining Germany's traditional industrial base and the need to transition to a low-carbon, sustainable economy. Radical environmental policies could destabilise industry, while delaying action could exacerbate climate impacts.

• Individual freedom versus collective action: The scenarios explore the tension between prioritising individual freedom (as seen in more market-driven futures) and the need for collective action and public roles to achieve long-term societal goals, particularly in addressing climate change.

• National sovereignty versus global integration: As a global actor, Germany must navigate its role in international politics, balancing national interests with global responsibilities, particularly with regard to climate action and security. The scenarios differ in how they balance these priorities.

A territorial dimension

Unfortunately, the scenarios do not explicitly address the territorial implications of the different possible futures and what they mean for territorial cohesion and disparities in Germany. Reading between the lines, it seems that the future of territorial cohesion will depend on how Germany manages to balance economic competitiveness, sustainability and social inclusion. Without targeted interventions, regional disparities may deepen, especially in scenarios that prioritise technological and economic freedoms over collective well-being.

While some scenarios have the potential to reduce disparities, others could exacerbate them:

• Potential for territorial cohesion: Scenarios such as Green Growth and Radical Compromises suggest more balanced regional development through public missions and green technologies. These scenarios assume that targeted investment in regional infrastructure and innovation could reduce disparities between urban and rural areas.

• Risk of widening disparities: Scenarios such as Eco-Liberal Transformation and Techno-Optimism, which emphasise individual freedoms and market-driven innovation, could lead to greater regional disparities. These scenarios are more likely to benefit technology-driven urban centres, while rural or lagging regions may struggle to keep up.

• Stability and Status Quo: In the Stability and Security First alternative, the focus on maintaining current economic structures and industrial strengths could perpetuate existing territorial disparities, as these scenarios offer limited opportunities for transformative regional development.

Conclusion

The New Horizons 2045 scenarios provide a thought-provoking exploration of possible futures for Germany. While each scenario offers a different vision of what the future could look like, they all highlight the importance of managing complex trade-offs - between growth and sustainability, individual freedoms and collective needs, and national sovereignty and global integration. As Germany looks ahead to 2045, these scenarios offer valuable insights into the trade-offs and choices that will shape the country's future. Whether the country can achieve both competitiveness and territorial cohesion will depend on the paths policymakers choose and their ability to manage these conflicting goals.

The full scenario report is available in German at https://www.d2030.de/neue-horizonte/ (S'ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre)

by Kai Böhme